Thursday, April 26, 2012

What will Cloud Computing Mean for the Future?

By Michael Ritsema


I completed the book: The Big Switch - Rewiring the World from Edison to Google, by Nicholas Carr while on holiday with my family. This is a great read and I suggest it to any of you. I admire a book that I suspect addresses one thought, then catches me with unexpected new ideas. This book did precisely that. I thought that I was reading a text about technology and cloud computing, and I was, nevertheless it came with an industrial and cultural subplot that truly jumped out at me.

The Big Switch is about the approaching tempest called cloud computing. Carr does not talk of the WWW (World Wide Web), but instead talks about the WWC (World Wide Computer). The cloud conglomeration of technology on the PC grid is changing technology, economics and our American culture.

Carr tracks the history of industry from Burden's waterwheel and factories on the river (see the Grand Rapids Public Museum and our Grand Rapids Furniture Building), to over 50,000 of Edison's Dyno generators in each and every factory in America, to power companies displacing company owned generators. Why own a privately owned generator when a centralized utility will manage and deliver the needed electricity for less money? Move forward to personal computer servers installed at individual firms and you see where this is going. Cloud based grid computing is a logical technical and commercial trend. We're on the front edge of this wave at this time.

The commercial subplot in the book is fascinating to me. Basically, technology has been the driver of productiveness worldwide for years. From the discovery of the wheel and the wick (yes, the candlewick) to Ford's assembly line,, trailblazers have been applying new technologies to human work to boost productiveness and create wealth forever. Google, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, for example, and the new worldwide PC grid are changing that framework significantly. Note that formerly technology was applied to human paid labor (workers) to improve results. Google, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and online companies are now cashing in on billions of dollars in value with 'free ' work. Google uses our search information to establish worth. You and I aren't paid for those efforts. Facebook creates value thru the connections and content that you and I create on that site. Facebook might have created 100 billion dollars of value by assembling 'free ' info that you and I delivered! YouTube uses free videos submitted worldwide to create value. They don't pay producers, directors or actors. This is a dramatic movement in valuevalue creation. I submit that these firms have generated almost $1 Trillion in worth using a volunteer labor force. You and I deliver the worth and content for free. The implication for work and professions as web technology advances from WWW (World Wide Web) to WWC (World Wide Computer) is similarly engaging and worth contemplating.

The cultural subplot is equally engaging. The last living human beings who lived pre-electric are now dying. Imagine living when the only light after the sun sets is from your lamp, candle or fire. No street lights, no ceiling lights, no reading lights. Just pure darkness. Are you able to imagine every night being like a camping trip, gathering round the fire 365 nights a year? Carr concludes the book with a brief glimpse into the future, 100 years from now when the last human that lived pre-WWW is gone. Can you remember what it was like pre-internet, pre-cell phone, pre-smart phone? Our American culture shifted forever with the invention of electricity and it is going through a highly influential change with the development of the world wide web/computer in our everyday lives. What are the implications, gains and losses of this progress?

Consider The Big Switch as a superb read and a look into the change that is coming to business and technology ...




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